July 31, 2000
EDITORIAL:
Election results will shape court
___"Conventional wisdom" maintains that the American public usually votes with its pocketbook. Aside from a major calamity or crisis, voters tend to choose candidates, particularly for national office, based on the candidates' expected impact on the economy.
___In this year's presidential election, however, voters would do well to look beyond their bank accounts. The next president could nominate several Supreme Court justices, and their legal decisions may well shape American life for decades. That potential impact traverses a range of issues, from abortion to church-state relations, and from race relations to states' rights and federal power.
___Court observers believe several justices may retire within the next presidential term and certainly within the next two terms:
___Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 67, labeled by some as a "cautious liberal," is recovering from surgery related to colon cancer.
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___In addition, some Washington insiders speculate that, should the presidency remain with the Democrats, Antonin Scalia, 64, one of the three most conservative justices, might retire rather than tread the judicial backwaters of minority opinion. The other justices--Stephen Breyer, 61, a liberal centrist Clinton appointee; Anthony Kennedy, 63, a conservative centrist; David Souter, 60, a Bush appointee with a surprisingly liberal bent; and Clarence Thomas, 52, the other ultra-conservative--are expected to stay on the bench for the foreseeable future.
___Supreme Court succession isn't as simple as all that, of course. Justices aren't mandated to step down, and some of the anticipated retirees may remain for years, while health and personal factors could force potential long-termers into early retirement.
___Still, even a minimal number of retirements in the next four years could reshape the court on key issues. For example, a significant number of abortion-rights and church-state cases have been determined by close decisions, often 5-4 votes. A one- or two-vote swing at the high court could determine the outcome of cases for many years.
___For example, the justices recently voted 5-4 to strike down a Nebraska law banning partial-birth abortions. A one-vote swing to the right could switch the outcome of such rulings, providing victories for abortion opponents. A one-vote turn to the left, however, could provide abortion advocates with the power to turn aside various attempts to restrict abortion.
___Similarly, many church-state cases also are decided by split votes. Church-state separationists fear that an increase in so-called conservative justices could breach the wall of separation between these vital institutions. They point to decisions that downplay religious rights, such as those written by conservatives Rehnquist and Scalia.
___These two issues in particular form a paradox for many Texas Baptists, who simultaneously oppose abortion but support church-state separation. A Republican victory could mean abortion rights are limited. A Democratic victory could mean religious liberty and church-state separation are advocated more strongly.
___Still, Supreme Court decisions aren't as simple as all that. Conservative presidents sometimes nominate justices who prove to be liberal. And vice-versa.
___Nevertheless, the state of the Supreme Court is worthy of research, thought and prayer as Baptist Christians enter the polling booths this year. Certainly, we care about the economy. But the votes we cast also will shape the court cases that shape American society.
___ Marv Knox
E-mail the editor at marvknox@baptiststandard.com
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