Will candidate’s Mormon faith repel or attract voters?

image_pdfimage_print

WASHINGTON (RNS)—As the first Mormon selected by a major political party as its presidential candidate, will Mitt Romney's barrier-breaking faith be a boon or bane to his White House campaign? Two studies on the question come to contradictory conclusions.

There are 15 Mormons serving in the 112th U.S. Congress, including Harry Reid, Tom Udall, Orrin Hatch, Mike Lee and Mike Crapo.

In both studies, people received information about Romney and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, then asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote for him.

The first study, produced by three prominent political scientists, including two Mormons, finds Romney's religion hampered his 2008 presidential run and may do so again this year.

But a second, from the Washington-based nonpartisan Brookings Institution, calls such concerns "overblown" and suggests Romney's Mormonism actually may help him court conservative voters.

So, what gives?

This much seems clear: Since 1967, nearly one in five Americans consistently have told Gallup pollsters they would not vote for a Mormon presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, more Americans are becoming aware of Romney's religion: 48 percent know he's a Mormon, up from 39 percent last November, according to the Pew Research Center.

But few Americans are well-acquainted personally with a Mormon, according political scientists David Campbell of the University of Notre Dame, John Green of the University of Akron and J. Quin Monson of Brigham Young University. Just 14 percent of Americans have a Mormon family member or close friend.

That could present obstacles for Romney, the political scientists argue in their paper, "The Stained Glass Ceiling: Social Contact and Mitt Romney's 'Religion Problem.'"


Sign up for our weekly edition and get all our headlines in your inbox on Thursdays


Mormons no longer are persecuted, as they were during the late 1800s, but their beliefs and proselytizing remain unpopular among many Americans, the scholars say. In addition, Mormons are isolated geographically in western states and socially insular, often marrying and making friends within the church.

In other words, they have built few social "bridges" to non-Mormons, with consequences for Romney's campaign.

People who know a Mormon well were less likely to be dissuaded from supporting Romney by hearing negative information about his church, the scholars found. People with no personal exposure to Mormons (46 percent) were swayed by both positive and negative facts about the faith. And people who know a Mormon only in passing (40 percent) were more likely to be influenced by negative than positive depictions of the faith.

The Brookings study, however, found that a lot had changed in four years.

Matthew Chingos, a Brookings fellow, and Michael Henderson, a political scientist at Mississippi University, argue that even evangelicals who had rejected Romney during the 2012 primary now solidly support him.

"White evangelicals do not abandon Romney even when differences between their beliefs and his are emphasized," the study says. "Thus, it appears that the concerns among the campaign watchers about Romney's religion are misplaced."


We seek to connect God’s story and God’s people around the world. To learn more about God’s story, click here.

Send comments and feedback to Eric Black, our editor. For comments to be published, please specify “letter to the editor.” Maximum length for publication is 300 words.

More from Baptist Standard