Reading the Culture: The next 10 years

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When one of the closest presidential elections in history is decided, what will the next four years bring? George Friedman's The Next Decade offers a window into that future. Friedman is one of the world's foremost geopolitical analysts, and I read everything he publishes. The Next Decade is as insightful and controversial as his other writings.

His thesis is simple: America is the unintentional empire. With an economy more than three times larger than our closest competitor, accounting for 22.5 percent of all direct foreign investment (China accounts for 4.4 percent), and a military that controls every ocean on the planet, we are the world's only global empire. However, we were founded as a republic, built on principles of individual freedom and the autonomy of nations. In Freidman's view, whether we can maintain our commitment to the independence of citizens and countries while preserving our global status is the crucial question of the next decade.

What does he think will happen around the world?

• The United States will come to a rapprochement with Iran that lessens its threat against Israel and the West while ensuring its sovereignty and economic future.

• Turkey and America will forge an alliance that will preserve a balance of powers in the Middle East.

• Russia will seek a partnership with Germany in which it provides natural gas in exchange for technology; this relationship could threaten the economic balance in Europe.

• The United States will partner with Poland to prevent the westward spread of Russian influence in eastern Europe.

Reading the Culture• China's economy will retract as its labor costs continue to escalate and profit margins decline. Its government likely will redistribute wealth to the impoverished rural regions of the country, to the detriment of its coastal cities and economic health.

• Japan's need for workers and natural resources will impel its expansion in the region and may bring it into conflict with the United States.

• Mexican drug traffic will continue, but violence will not spread north as such aggression would trigger an American response that would damage the cartels.

• Africa's tribal groups will continue warfare until its nations are more homogeneous.

• America's economy will become increasingly reliant on robotics and space technology.

In such chaotic days, the role of the president never has been more critical. He alone possesses the power to mobilize our military. Congress has declared war only five times in our history, but presidents frequently have sent troops into battle. As the lead architect of our foreign policy and commander-in-chief of our national defense, he plays a vital and unique role in our future.

When our next president is elected, it is vital that every Christian obey the biblical mandate that "requests, prayers, intercession and thanksgiving be made for everyone—for kings and all those in authority" (1 Timothy 2:1-2). Have you prayed for your president yet today?

Jim Denison is president of the Denison Forum on Truth and Culture (www.denisonforum.org) and theologian-in-residence with the Baptist General Convention of Texas.


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